This period of strong growth not only offers opportunities but also calls for strategic considerations to ensure sustainable development and equitable prosperity in the years to come, suggests Sujan Hajra.
Iran is India's largest importer of tea in value terms while in terms of volume, it is the second largest after Russia
Overall gross import of rough diamonds between April to November 2019 has shown a decline of 17.24 per cent to $8.55 billion from $10.34 billion registered during April to November 2018. This is one of sharpest fall in import of diamond in India in last one decade.
Services exports in September this year were worth $12.29 billion, marginally down from the previous month, according to the Reserve Bank data.
The total exports from services in November 2012 was at $12.03 billion, as per RBI data.
The rising dependence on discounted crude oil has resulted in India's trade deficit with Russia hitting the second-highest place last year, after China, reveals Department of Commerce data. From April through January 2022-23 (FY23), India's maximum trade deficit was with China, at $71.58 billion. This was followed by Russia, where the deficit expanded sevenfold - from $4.86 billion in April-January of 2021-22 (FY22) to $34.79 billion during the same period in FY23.
Gold import this financial year is estimated at 945 tonnes.
Russian oil supplies to India will continue to flow unhindered and suppliers will come up with ways to sidestep secondary sanctions, a Russian official told Business Standard.
For the April-February period, exports were up 4.79 per cent to $282.7 billion, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Tuesday.
India's exports dipped after a gap of four months in March but finished 2017-18 with a healthy rise of 9.78 per cent to $302.84 billion.
The rupee breached the 80-mark against the dollar on Tuesday. The steady depreciation in the value of the rupee against the US dollar is likely to prove expensive for corporate India. The listed companies' revenue expenses in foreign currency or imports exceed their export revenues or revenue earnings in forex. In their latest financial year, BSE500 companies, excluding banks and non-banking finance companies and insurance (BFSI), reported combined forex expenses of Rs 12.31 trillion against forex earnings of around Rs 10 trillion.
The fall in exports of gems and jewellery exports is mainly because of shortage of raw-material for jewellery manufacturing.
The country's merchandise deficit narrowed to $9.2 billion in November, but exports growth eased to 5.9 percent from 13.5 percent in October, government data showed.
The sector employs around 1 million skilled and unskilled workers directly and indirectly and decline in exports is a major worry for participants in the value chain.
If government statistics are at variance with private data flow, chances are high that the latter presents a picture closer to reality.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday that India's general government debt (comprising both central and state government debt) could exceed 100 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term. It also cautioned that long-term debt sustainability risks are high due to the significant investment required to meet India's climate change mitigation targets. The Indian government, however, disagreed, arguing that risks from sovereign debt are extremely limited as it is predominantly denominated in domestic currency.
Capital expenditure by Indian companies is likely to see an uptick in the upcoming quarters as capacity utilisation has surpassed the critical threshold of 75 per cent, and numerous companies have deleveraged their balance sheets, according to analysts. The first quarter of the current financial year has shown improved profitability, driven by a decrease in input prices. This, according to analysts at Care Ratings, should stimulate a revival in the private capex cycle.
Out of these, no balance has been found in case of 289 accounts
'If because of El Nino, the monsoon is affected adversely in the current year, naturally it will affect income projections and consequently Budget numbers.'
The growth in imports was led by product categories such as diagnostic items, ultra-sonogram machines, MRI and ECG apparatus, syringes with needles, suture needles, digital thermometers, malaria diagnostic kits, and hearing aids.
The oil industry experienced three upheavals between 1973 and 1991, which seem to be etched in the memory of the industry's decision makers. Naturally, at the sign of a new crisis, the decision makers like to dip into those tumultuous decades to find ways to deal with the new shock, in addition, of course, to expert reports and forecasts. So, the industry bigwigs turned the pages of history to get a peek into the future of oil price movements after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israel attacked Gaza in 2023, Iran-linked Houthi rebels pounded tankers crossing the Red Sea in support of Palestine the same year, and Iran rained missiles on Israel in 2024.
'Rhetoric and chest-thumping are running high on India's recent growth record.'
'But will the giant waves developing elsewhere allow us to sail smoothly into fair winds?' asks Debashis Basu.
'We are engaging in substantial open market sales of both wheat and rice to control food inflation; special measures of market intervention in vegetables, pulses and oil seeds were also taken to cushion the impact.'
Growth in the eight core sectors jumped to 8.5% in April, due to a sharp pick-up in refinery products and a commensurate rise in electricity generation.
'80% of the rural and urban population don't have enough purchasing power.'
Textile stocks have exhibited a mixed performance so far this calendar year (CY23), amidst higher domestic cotton prices and tepid global demand. Shares of Page Industries, Dollar Industries, Lux Industries, and VIP Clothing have declined up to 13 per cent so far in CY23, as against a 9 per cent jump in the S&P BSE Sensex. On the contrary, shares of Arvind, Welspun India, Raymond, and Gokaldas Exports have gained up to 51 per cent, during the same period.
The Indian rupee may remain under depreciation pressure on account of plateauing of exports and subsequent widening of the current account deficit, said the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday. It said the "risks to the current account balance stem from multiple sources". The country's current account deficit (CAD) widened to 4.4 per cent of the GDP in the quarter ended September from 2.2 per cent in April-June due to higher trade gap, as per latest data of the Reserve Bank of India.
India's appetite for imported crude oil may wane in fiscal year (FY) 2023 from record levels in pre-pandemic 2019-20 fiscal as higher oil prices, a spillover from the conflict in Ukraine, and increasing use of biofuels affect domestic demand for petroleum products. Brent crude surged to a nine-year high, shy of a July 2008 record $147.50 a barrel, before declining to around $100 a barrel - but the volatility in commodity rates will slow global economic growth and use of fuels. Demand for all oil products may grow at only 2-3 per cent in FY23, slower than the current fiscal and nearly half the 5.5 per cent growth estimated by the petroleum ministry, according to industry officials.
In Hong Kong market, the dollar fell against Japanese yen in early trade after the release of a set of stronger- than-expected economic data.
India will soon meet Iraq and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to seek a definitive rate of discount on crude oil similar to what Russia has provided so far, sources said. Multiple officials and industry executives said Iraq, which is India's biggest oil supplier, wants to discuss the level of discounts expected by Indian refiners. India's focus on snapping up ever-increasing volumes of Russian crude oil has led to a corresponding decline in imports from the Middle East. Flows from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have suffered as a result.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
Benchmark BSE Sensex rose by 160 points on Thursday in choppy trade following gains in select banking and auto counters amid mixed global cues. The 30-share index gained 160 points to settle at 62,570.68 as 13 of its components advanced while 17 declined. The barometer opened lower but later gained momentum to touch a high of 62,633.56 in the day's trade.
At 12-15 tonnes, the imports in September are estimated to be much lower than in the same month last year.
The rule required firms to mandatorily export 20 per cent of the gold they had imported.
This is good news for the central government at a time when crude oil prices are rising.
Modi sees export-led growth one of the best ways to create jobs.
Govt has so far refused to bring down the import duty to 2% from the current 10%.
Despite being a neighbour, Pakistan has never accounted for more than 2 per cent of India's total exports, and its share in India's total imports is less than 1 per cent. On the other hand, bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh has increased five times.
During Abe's tenure, Japan had announced support for a number of major projects. These included the bullet train project between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, besides allocations for a freight corridor between Mumbai and New Delhi.
The current account deficit widened to $10.1 billion or 2.1 per cent of GDP for the September quarter as against 1.2 per cent in the year-ago period.
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